As of late, the million-dollar question regarding the monthly Cattle on Feed reports has been: Are feeder cattle placements going to be lighter than a year ago? And with the U.S. beef-cow herd at a 52-year low, it seems like somewhat of a bizarre question to mull around.

But there are two main reasons why feeder cattle placements have been higher than a year ago lately: first, because of the feeder cattle market's incredible strength; second, because of higher feeder cattle imports coming from Mexico.

The first point doesn't take much explaining. Cow-calf operations have struggled with profitability in recent years and when the market began to charge higher, some producers elected to market their feeder cattle earlier than normal to capitalize on the market's strength while the opportunity presented itself. With three-quarters of the U.S. calf crop being winter/spring born, the market normally sees the biggest placements in May, September and October. But with feed continuing to be an issue for some operations, both calves and feeders have been marketed earlier this year as producers saw an opportunity to seize profits and they pulled the trigger.

The second point, higher feeder cattle placements from Mexico, takes a little more explaining and naturally comes as a frustration to most U.S. cattle producers. As of last week, feeder imports from Mexico into the U.S. totaled 691,658 head -- just a year ago, feeder cattle imports from Mexico only totaled 490,018 head. This means year-to-date feeder cattle imports out of Mexico are up 41%.

Dow Jones just released analysts' estimates for the August Cattle on Feed report, and placements are expected to total 94.9% of a year ago, with the analysts' range of guesses varying anywhere from 90.4% to 98.6% of a year ago. So, theoretically, based on what the industry has concluded, placements should be lower than a year ago. But given what we know about Mexican feeder cattle imports, there remains a chance placements are higher, despite fewer U.S. feeders in the marketplace to go round.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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